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		<title>Reserve Bank Cuts Interest Rates?</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/from-the-desk/reserve-bank-cuts-interest-rates/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/from-the-desk/reserve-bank-cuts-interest-rates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2009 06:55:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=1822</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Attention All Mortgage Holders!!!
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets again tomorrow for the 2nd time this year to decide whether or not to move the official interest rate!
Reserve Bank Cuts Interest Rates?
The Argument for another rate cut&#8230;

Monetary policy required to stimulate spending within the economy to stave off job losses
Evidence that the Rudd Government&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Attention All Mortgage Holders!!!</h3>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets again tomorrow for the 2nd time this year to decide whether or not to move the official interest rate!</p>
<h3>Reserve Bank Cuts Interest Rates?</h3>
<p>The Argument for another rate cut&#8230;</p>
<ul>
<li>Monetary policy required to stimulate spending within the economy to stave off job losses
<li>Evidence that the Rudd Government&#8217;s first stimulus package had only a marginal effect on the economy
<li>Continuing talk of job losses
<li>Consumer sentiment recovering somewhat slower than hoped
<li>Touch and go whether we will avoid (or fall into ) recession</li>
</ul>
<p>In my opinion, this all points to yet another official interest rate cut being announced tomorrow, after the RBA board meets.</p>
<p><strong>So, the $64,000 question is &#8220;by how much will reserve bank cut interest rates</strong><strong>?&#8221;</strong></p>
<p><span id="more-1822"></span>
<p>Nobody can be sure of what Glenn Stevens and the Reserve Bank board will decide; however, we can all have an opinion.</p>
<h3>Nick&#8217;s Interest Rate Opinion</h3>
<ul>
<li>I think that there is a case for at least another 50 basis points to come off the official rate (or 0.5%)
<li><strong>This time around, I expect that the majority of our banks will NOT pass any official cut on in full</strong>
<li>Therefore, I suspect that <strong>the <u>Reserve Bank will go further</u> and cut official interest rates by 75 basis points (or 0.75%)</strong>; in the hope that at least 0.6% will be passed through to Australian consumers</li>
</ul>
<p>By this time tomorrow we will all know what decision the RBA took&#8230; and which way rates are to move.</p>
<p>Regardless, we have now entered an era of historically&nbsp; low rates; which is exceptionally good news for investors.</p>
<p>When rent plus tax savings exceed interest plus property expenses, that property is said to be positively cashflowed. After tomorrow&#8217;s rate cut passes through the system, Katrina&#8217;s and my property portfolio will be positively cashflowed&#8230; meaning what was already a <a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/set.htm" target="_blank"><u>Set &#8216;n&#8217; Forget <em>for busy people</em></u></a>&nbsp;<strong>™</strong> experience has now become even better!</p>
<p>If you have a desire to radically improve your financial standing over the next 5 years&#8230; and you would like <strong>mrd</strong> to assist you to chart the best course forward&#8230; I urge you to take up our complimentary, no obligation offer of a <a href="http://investmentmentor.com.au/2009/02/20/property-investor-crash-victims/#more-1601" target="_blank"><u>Finance Structure &amp; Cash Flow Health Check</u></a>.</p>
<h3>Finance Structure &amp; Cash Flow Health Check</h3>
<p>As part of our Customer Care Program, we recently offered to prepare a complimentary, no obligation Finance Structure &amp; Cash Flow Health Check. This offer has been well received and widely taken up.
<p>Would you like to take advantage of this opportunity? Just click the link below to send us your best contact details.<br />
<h3>What benefits are there in a financial health check?</h3>
<h3>Read case studies&#8230;</h3>
<p><a href="http://investmentmentor.com.au/2009/02/20/property-investor-crash-victims/#more-1601">http://investmentmentor.com.au/2009/02/20/property-investor-crash-victims/#more-1601</a></p>
<h3>Yes please&#8230;</h3>
<p>I would appreciate a complimentary <a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/contact.htm">Financial Health Check</a>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/contact.htm">http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/contact.htm</a><br />
<h3><font color="#ff0000">New Brisbane Project: Released to VIP Clients Wednesday!</font></h3>
<p>FINALLY! On Wednesday we will be releasing an exciting new project, complete with generous additions negotiated with the vendor. This project is about 15 minutes from the Brisbane CBD.
<p>If you are a VIP, you will receive 48 hours advance notice; non VIP&#8217;s will hear about the project on Friday.
<p>To ensure you are included to receive advanced notification of all new projects <strong>mrd</strong> releases, simply <a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/vip.htm" target="_blank"><u>upgrade to VIP status</u></a> today; it&#8217;s <strong><u>FREE</u>!</strong>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/vip.htm"><u>http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/vip.htm</u></a>
<p>Happy Investing,
<p>Nick Lockhart
<p><strong>mrd</strong> Customer Care Program… <em>because investing is personal</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>REVEALED! Interest Rate Cuts Deliver HIDDEN BONUS; Rarely Understood&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/revealed-interest-rate-cuts-deliver-hidden-bonus-rarely-understood/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/revealed-interest-rate-cuts-deliver-hidden-bonus-rarely-understood/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2009 06:12:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Wroe @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=1391</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the peak of the interest rate cycle the standard variable of the big 4 banks was 9.57%. Assuming you took up the offer of a professional package with the banks and qualified for the full 0.7% discount your interest rate would have been 8.87%. For a peak rate, that isn’t too bad considering long [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At the peak of the interest rate cycle the standard variable of the big 4 banks was 9.57%. Assuming you took up the offer of a professional package with the banks and qualified for the full 0.7% discount your interest rate would have been 8.87%. For a peak rate, that isn’t too bad considering long term history. I recall buying my first home in 1994 when the rates had come down to a low 10.5%. They then dropped to 9.5% and I was dancing with joy at how much money I was saving and how cheap interest rates were.</p>
<p>How times have changed.</p>
<p>To demonstrate how the changes in interest rates affect your holding costs I will use the properties at Endeavour Gardens as an example&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-1391"></span>When rates peaked, the property would have cost you about $210 a week to hold after tax, based on a 30% tax rate. For the majority of people that is a significant amount to find each week. Holding a property such as this was difficult and fewer people were able or willing to get involved and wait for the capital growth to repay their holding costs.
</p>
<p>With more advanced financing strategies such as the capitalising of most property expenses you may have been able to bring the holding costs down to a little over $100 a week. Even at these higher rates it was still a very good investment as the expected capital growth would have dwarfed the holding costs but few people would have been able to see that.</p>
<h3>What is the holding cost now?</h3>
<p>That initial $210 a week to hold after tax has dropped to a <strong>tiny $32 a week</strong>.</p>
<p>Using the <strong>mrd</strong> advanced financing strategies the property actually becomes <strong>cash flow positive by $75 a week.</strong></p>
<p>The <strong>Hidden Bonus</strong> is that not only is the property now not dependent on a contribution from your hard earned wages but it is actually paying you back, contributing to your weekly savings, helping you pay down your own home loan <em>and</em> creating wealth for you through capital growth.</p>
<p>What is rarely understood is that by using these same <strong>mrd</strong> advanced finance strategies it may be possible to have the tax man contribute to paying off your home loan by changing home mortgage debt into tax deductible investment debt.&nbsp; For more information about how this may work for you please ask one of our team.</p>
<p>You can now have a property that pays you every week. In addition, it generates huge equity pools for future investments or lifestyle choices. As an example, if this Endeavour Gardens property grows by an average of 9% a year (8 year doubling cycle) then in that 8 years it will average $805 a week in equity growth for very little time and effort.</p>
<p>This complies with our<strong> &#8220;set &#8216;n&#8217; forget&#8221; <em>for busy people</em> ™</strong> strategy.</p>
<p>It is only a matter of time before the masses realise what a bargain this property is.</p>
<p>My question to you is&#8230; <strong>are you going to be ahead of the herd or following in its wake?</strong></p>
<p>So if in the midst of financial turmoil, negative media and confusion you are wondering what actions will best serve your medium to long term interests; <span style="text-decoration: underline">I challenge you to test us</span>.</p>
<h3>You can make one of two choices:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Take us up on our offer for a no obligation, complimentary &#8220;<strong><em>Financial Structure &amp; Cashflow Health Check&#8221;</em></strong> <a href="mailto:info@investmentmentor.com.au?subject=vip%20Financial%20Structure%20&amp;%20Cashflow%20Health%20Check" target="_blank"><strong>click here to email us.<br /></strong></a>
<li>Find out what your Borrowing Capacity is <span style="text-decoration: underline">now</span> that rates have dropped so quickly. <a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/bca.php" target="_blank">Click here to submit your form today.</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>Regards,</p>
<p>Doug Wroe<br /><strong>mrd</strong> customer care program&#8230; <em>because investing is personal</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Official Cash Rate To Fall By Another 1%</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/from-the-desk/official-cash-rate-to-fall-by-another-1/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/from-the-desk/official-cash-rate-to-fall-by-another-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Jan 2009 01:40:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=1344</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet for the first time this year, next Tuesday. While it&#8217;s difficult to know exactly what they will do with official interest rates, I expect another generous reduction to be handed out; probably 1%; but certainly at least 0.75%.

Now things could happen over the next few days to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet for the first time this year, next Tuesday. While it&#8217;s difficult to know exactly what they will do with official interest rates, I expect another generous reduction to be handed out; probably 1%; but certainly at least 0.75%.</p>
<p><span id="more-1344"></span>
<p>Now things could happen over the next few days to change that. For example, the Federal Government announcement concerning the next round of stimulus to be announced. Factors such as this cannot be properly considered at the time I am writing this.</p>
<p>Initial evidence suggests the Federal Government&#8217;s cash handouts in December &#8216;08 fell short of having the desired effect. It needs to be noted, however, that official reporting on Christmas spending last month has not yet been released.</p>
<p>Assuming the cash rate will move down by another 1.25% (to 3%) by early March&#8230; I see two options before the RBA when they meet next Tuesday:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Move rates down by just 0.5% in February</strong> while waiting for official figures to indicate exactly how much impact the 1st stimulus package had on Christmas spending. This option would also allow the RBA time to digest the detail of the 2nd stimulus package and assess its likely impact. NB: 2nd stimulus package will be announced soon&#8230; possibly this week end.
<li><strong>Move rates down by a full 1.0% in February</strong> and not risk losing another month whereby the economy could be further stimulated. If they take this option and risk &#8220;over cutting&#8221; rates next Tuesday they can then put the brakes on a little and do less the following month.</li>
</ol>
<p>Of course there could be any number of other options and the net effect is that the next two months could see the official cash rate fall below 3%; that is certainly not out of the question.</p>
<p>Personally I suspect the RBA will view their responsibility of overseeing monetary policy with much caution next week and attempt to make a significant contribution to boosting both business and consumer confidence quickly.</p>
<p>At this time our economy is quite fragile and to &#8216;play it safe&#8217; would seem the most responsible course of action the RBA could take. Managing inflation is no longer of primary concern. Even so, inflation has been taken care of anyway. Falling commodity and labour prices has rectified any inflation problems we were considered to have a year ago&#8230; adding to the argument for lowering interest rates.</p>
<p>Have you heard it said that <strong><em>&#8220;in every adversity lies the seeds of a bigger and better opportunity&#8221;</em></strong>?</p>
<p>This is not just a string of nice words, but a profound truth. The bigger the adversity, the bigger the opportunity. <strong>Assuming we understand that influences of &#8220;supply &amp; demand&#8221; and &#8220;herd mentality&#8221; on values <em>(even though in the short term aberrations may occur); we will be better positioned to SEE the bigger and better opportunities available now.</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li>I believe there are more pessimists than optimists; it&#8217;s easier to be negative just as it&#8217;s easier to grow weeds than flowers
<li>When it comes to matters of finances, more people are more influenced by their emotions than facts
<li>If &#8220;everyone else&#8221; is doing it&#8230; so will we
<li>In Australia we have a growing demand for housing continuing, with a very limited supply
<li>Confidence is at an all time low; albeit without justification in many instances
<li>Some developers have gone out of business, others have put the brakes on until they see the property market pick up&#8230; many of the rest would still construct if they could find a bank to lend to them
<li>If the source of this supply problem was fixed overnight, it would take years before the solution worked through the system resulting in sufficient numbers of additional completed housing
<li>Those who hold property today can look forward to the benefits of significant capital gain&#8230; resulting from the next up-cycle
<li>Up-cycles follow seasons where housing is considered affordable
<li>With interest rates quickly falling (and to levels most Australians have never seen in their lifetime) and rents being forced up by the growing demand (with lack of supply for years to come) housing will soon be considered VERY affordable</li>
</ul>
<p>The numbers look really good now and are only going to get better. This gives me confidence that broadly appealing residential property, in sought after locations&#8230; will, over the next few years, grow significantly in value. <strong>The doomsayers and their followers will have about as much credibility as a cult leader and his key disciples.</strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="2">My Suggestion:</font></strong></p>
<p>Assuming you have had an analysis run on your personal situation and understand the associated costs and responsibilities of <strong>both buying and holding</strong> real estate&#8230; now is a fantastic time to buy &#8211; i.e. for those who subscribe to the <strong>mrd</strong> buy/hold strategy <em>(if you&#8217;re a property speculator, trader and/or renovator &#8211; &#8220;good luck &amp; may the force be with you&#8221; &#8211; ha, ha)</em></p>
<p><strong>My property portfolio is just about always adding to my wealth.</strong> Either my property values are increasing; and adding to the amount of equity I have to work with&#8230; or the rents are increasing; and adding to my income base. <strong><em>Remembering that to acquire more property we must demonstrate to our lender sufficient equity and income&#8230; I am always winning with real estate.</em></strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="2">Safety In Numbers:</font></strong></p>
<p>People feel safer in numbers; that&#8217;s why the herd mentality is so prevalent&#8230; but recent history has shown that if you followed what was popular you may have lost half your super or shares etc. I believe real opportunity (like risk) comes from our knowledge (or lack thereof) and our willingness to &#8220;swim against the tide&#8221; of popular opinion.</p>
<p><strong><font size="2">Interest Rates &amp; Holding Costs:</font></strong></p>
<p>Currently the CBA offers the lowest professional package interest rate; just 6.04%. If I am right and rates come down by another 1.25% (or more) over the next 5 weeks&#8230; and even if it were not all passed on, we would be looking at being able to borrow for about 5%!</p>
<p><strong>That means the total interest bill on a property that cost $400,000 (assuming you borrowed 100%) would be more than covered by a weekly rent of $385</strong>. Now I know that there are council rates, body corporate and rental management fees etc to come from this&#8230; but so too there are tax deductions and the strong likelihood of more rent than $385 a week. <strong>Watch how, when the numbers change so much in such little time, even the herd will see the opportunity! And when they do&#8230; we will have our next up-cycle.</strong></p>
<p><a href="mailto:info@investmentmentor.com.au?subject= Complimentary Health Check Please">Click here</a> to take us up on our complimentary, no obligation offer of an <strong>mrd </strong><em>“Finance Structure &amp; Cash Flow Health Check”</em>.
<p>Happy Investing,
<p>Nick Lockhart
<p><strong>mrd</strong> customer care program… <em>because investing is personal</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Property Investors Trifecta</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/from-the-desk/the-property-investors-trifecta/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/from-the-desk/the-property-investors-trifecta/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 11:01:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=836</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To make sense of the property market we must separate opinion from fact. Opinions will always be heard&#8230; just in greater numbers now perhaps. If you are prepared to &#8220;drill deeper&#8221; and dissect the evidence available; the facts will speak for themselves. There&#8217;s no reason for allowing the conflicting voices of opinion to keep you [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To make sense of the property market we must separate opinion from fact. Opinions will always be heard&#8230; just in greater numbers now perhaps. If you are prepared to &#8220;drill deeper&#8221; and <span style="text-decoration: underline">dissect the evidence</span> available; <strong>the facts will speak for themselves</strong>. There&#8217;s no reason for allowing the conflicting voices of opinion to keep you confused!</p>
<p>In the current round of Web Seminars we are offering, I highlight four key factors that are a MUST&#8230; <em>if you expect to draw any <strong>credible</strong> conclusions</em>.</p>
<p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Record Population Growth<br />2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Investors Have Fled The Market<br />3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Home Ownership Unattractive<br />4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; New Construction Has Stalled Badly</p>
<p><span id="more-836"></span><strong>1. RECORD POPULATION GROWTH</strong>
</p>
<p>Australia is currently experiencing the fastest population growth in 200 years. Our population is predicted to grow by <span style="text-decoration: underline">350,000 this year</span> for the first time in over 200 years. That represents approximately the <span style="text-decoration: underline">combined total population</span> of Geelong, Cairns &amp; Bunbury; or the whole of Canberra.</p>
<p>The 1850&#8217;s Gold Rush years, Post World War 1 (1919 onwards) and post World War 2 (1946 onwards) saw our 3 previous population explosions. Today we see a similar pattern emerging; i.e. rapid and prolonged growth, too few workers and pro-immigration government policies.</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Record population growth</strong> means a significantly stronger demand for new housing! Given our record numbers of new migrants will generally rent for a season, demand for rental properties will continue to strengthen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>2. INVESTORS HAVE FLED THE MARKET</strong></p>
<p>Rising interest rates in recent years have squeezed rental yields making property look unaffordable. Add to the mix a booming stock market (averaged over 20% per year between 2004 and 2007) and one can see why property has not been the preferred investment vehicle of recent years.</p>
<p>Since becoming familiar with the term &#8220;subprime&#8221;, seeing the global credit crisis unfold&#8230; and hearing of property values in the US &amp; UK falling by 30 &amp; 40%, many would-be-investors have opted to stay on &#8220;strike&#8221;. It&#8217;s fair to say that since the highs of mid 2004 only the &#8216;brave&#8217; have continued to invest in property.</p>
<blockquote><p>Investor demand accounts for about 50% of all new housing starts and about 70% of unit starts. Therefore, that <strong>investors have fled the market </strong>means significant negative impact on the supply of new housing and increased demand on existing rental accommodation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>3. HOME OWNERSHIP HAS BEEN UNATTRACTIVE</strong></p>
<p>As with investors. the housing affordability barrier, rising interest rates (&amp; general living costs) and of course the US initiated subprime crisis has left many would-be home owners lacking the confidence to purchase.</p>
<blockquote><p>Scared, priced out of the market, unable to secure funding or unable to service a loan? regardless of the reason why <strong>new home ownership has been unattractive</strong>; the result has been that many renters in recent years have simply continued to rent. This has placed further pressure on existing rental housing stock</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>4. NEW CONSTRUCTION HAS STALLED BADLY</strong></p>
<p>Since 2005 the absolute number of completed residential properties has fallen and they are forecast to continue falling in 2009. The US subprime crisis cemented this downward trend in demand for new properties. Add to that, in recent years we have seen the high profile bankruptcy of some large developers along with massive financial pressure on many smaller developers. The cost of finance has skyrocketed for developers&#8230; <em>i.e. if they can find a lender who will back them</em>. Understandably, developers are very nervous&#8230; many have simply shelved their new projects until such time as they see clear evidence that investors have returned to the market.</p>
<blockquote><p>Developers going broke, developers shelving projects and/or developers unable to secure funding means <strong>new construction has stalled badly</strong> and as a result greatly reduced the supply of new property further adding to pressures on existing housing stocks.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>DISSECTING THE EVIDENCE</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> We are experiencing the greatest housing shortage in 200 years
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> Because of the new Federal Government&#8217;s immigration policy, we are experiencing the strongest population growth in 200 years
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> Since about mid 2004, broadly speaking investors have fled the market
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> Since about mid 2004, broadly speaking home ownership has remained unattractive and renters have continued renting
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> Since about mid 2004 the construction of new dwellings has stalled badly
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> In mid 2004, national rental vacancy levels were about 3.5%. This level is considered a balanced market. Rental vacancy levels have dropped to below 1.5% now and are expected to continue to drop to historical lows of between 0.5% and 1% in 2009. These levels represent a stressed market
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> When the demand for rental housing grows at a faster pace than supply, increased demand can be offset by diminishing vacancy levels
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> When vacancy levels reach just 1% it is said that we have NO VACANCY, as the 1% represents the few days between tenants moving and carpets being cleaned etc&#8230; prior to a new tenant moving in
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> Therefore, once vacancy levels fall to 1%&#8230; there is no room left to offset increasing demand by diminishing vacancy levels
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> When demand increases and supply decreases and vacancy levels are already stressed; i.e. no vacancy&#8230; market forces mean rents have to go up&#8230; <em>and significantly where population growth is significant</em>
<li><strong>FACT:</strong> Interest rates are the lowest they have been in years and are expected to reach (near) record lows by mid 2009 </li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Now you have the FACTS, rather than simply &#8220;opinions&#8221;; may I suggest <span style="text-decoration: underline">you draw your own conclusions</span> as to what might happen with Australian property in mid to late 2009?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>With the cost of renting about to soar and the cost of ownership dropping significantly (i.e. rental incomes up and interest charges down), <span style="text-decoration: underline">what do you expect the market will do?</span>
<li>With stock market volatility and uncertainty and interest earned on cash deposited dropping away, <span style="text-decoration: underline">what do you expect the market will do?</span>
<li>With serious increases to the first home owners grant, <span style="text-decoration: underline">what do you expect this group to do?</span>
<li>Given rental properties vacated by first home owners will not produce a glut&#8230; because vacancy levels are at an all time low (stressed market) and the population is growing by the size of Canberra each year, <span style="text-decoration: underline">what do you think the market will do?</span> </li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Can I go out on a limb and tell you what I think; I may be wrong, but I don&#8217;t think I am?</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>I expect rents to soar in 2009
<li>I expect interest rates to continue to drop next month and in 2009
<li>I expect confidence to come back to the market, drawing back owners and renters alike
<li>Given there is a lag of a few years from when developers decide to build again and new stock being ready to live in&#8230; I see no relief for the poor tenant for at least a few years
<li>I also believe that the combination of all that I have just outlined will result in the next property price surge </li>
</ol>
<p><strong>So, in summary&#8230;</strong></p>
<p>Those who have been building a property portfolio as their preferred vehicle for funding their retirements (NB: assuming they bought the right <span style="text-decoration: underline">residential</span> property in the right areas) <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline">are soon going to experience the property investors trifecta</span>:</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Rising incomes (rents)
<li>Falling costs (interest)
<li>Increasing equity (values) </li>
</ol>
<p>I would love to address the subject <strong>&#8220;We are not the USA&#8221;</strong> and compare the <strong>FACTS</strong> relating to how we are different and why what happened there will not happen here; but I will save that for another day.</p>
<p>May I invite you to register your interest for either our next <span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>FREE</strong> Web Seminar</span> this Wednesday evening&#8230; or if you let us know what other time(s) best work for you, we will run them according to demand <a href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/webinar-signup.php"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a>.</p>
<p>Happy Investing,</p>
<p>Nick Lockhart<br /><strong>mrd </strong>customer care program&#8230; <em>because investing is personal</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
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		<title>MRD announces November&#8217;s 0.75% Interest Rate cut 8 minutes AHEAD of the Reserve Bank of Australia</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/mrd-announces-novembers-075-interest-rate-cut-8-minutes-ahead-of-the-reserve-bank-of-australia/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/mrd-announces-novembers-075-interest-rate-cut-8-minutes-ahead-of-the-reserve-bank-of-australia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:55:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last month I felt there was a very strong case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the official interest rates by a full 1%. I kept my considered views to myself but wished I hadn&#8217;t afterwards (as you do).
This month I considered the arguments and reasoning put forward by economists, journalists and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last month I felt there was a very strong case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the official interest rates by a full 1%. I kept my considered views to myself but wished I hadn&#8217;t afterwards (as you do).</p>
<p>This month I considered the arguments and reasoning put forward by economists, journalists and commentators; who mostly said that rates were likely to drop by 0.5% (although some argued a case for just 0.24% and others no rate cut). I concluded that the likely rate cut would be 0.75% (or possibly more)&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-700"></span></p>
<p>On Tuesday morning (Melbourne Cup Day), I decided to send out <a href="http://investmentmentor.com.au/2008/11/04/will-the-reserve-bank-cut-interest-rates-by-075-or-more-today/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0000ff;">a mid week newsletter</span></a> to that effect. Our email was delivered to mail boxes about 8 minutes BEFORE the RBA made their announcement. I was not the slightest bit surprised by them moving to cut official interest rates by .075%, but I was completely surprised when I watched the news 7:30 Report, Agenda &amp; Lateline etc to hear how &#8220;everybody  had been caught unaware&#8221;. &#8220;The RBA surprised everyone&#8221;; was the opening line on one programme.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s important to undertake solid objective research that enables you to conclude a carefully considered position. In these times of uncertainty, where fear is being peddled, like a commodity, this is even more important.</p>
<p>I am not an economist and I am not offering financial advice. I do believe, however, that most people would do well not to quickly dismiss what I write because someone on television said something different or because you think I may have an agenda.</p>
<p>I am not interested in turning my newsletter into one of political and/or economics; however, I am going to offer a few more of my (rambling) thoughts on Interest rates (now &amp; moving forward into the early part of next year)&#8230; and on the Federal Governments introduction of a carbon trading scheme; by 2010. <em><span style="color: #d54740;">If I turn out to be wrong, maybe I will qualify to be called an economist <img src='http://investmentmentor.com.au/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </span></em></p>
<p><strong>INTEREST RATES:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Official Interest Rates will continue downwards and will be just 4% by April 2009</li>
<li>I expect that the banks that have held off on passing on all of of Tuesday’s 0.75% rate cut will before this month is out</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Q: So why did Commonwealth Bank announce that they will only pass on 0.58%?</strong></p>
<p><strong>PROFIT: </strong>The longer they hold off passing the full cuts on&#8230; the better for their bottom line. Then when they finally do pass on the difference they can grab another round of positive headlines.</p>
<p><strong>POSTURE:</strong> Because they can!  After the years of bank bashing in Australia, the banks now feel vindicated for the way they have managed their affairs. After all, look at the rest of the world envying our banking system. They have some &#8216;poetic licence&#8217; to ignore the external pressures being applied to them and take the attitude: &#8220;So are you suggesting we are not doing a 1st class job managing the banking system in Australia&#8221;?</p>
<p><strong>Q: Why do I expect that they will pass on the remainder of this rate cut?</strong></p>
<p>They may not, for my two reasons above. Anybody representing Government or a business or consumer lobby group who pressures them to do so can be ignored. After all, our banks are like &#8220;modern day hero&#8217;s&#8221; that have protected us from suffering the same fate the rest of the world has and is enduring.</p>
<p>HOWEVER, I do expect them to pass the full rate cuts on for the following reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>They have an obligation</strong> (moral responsibility perhaps?) on them, having been the beneficiaries of the recent Government deposit guarantee. We the tax payers are the underwriters of this guarantee; which has enabled them access to more funds and has LOWERED their borrowing costs</li>
<li>I agree that last month there was a &#8216;YES&#8217; but this month it’s a &#8216;NO&#8217; to the argument that the RBA <span style="text-decoration: underline;">factored in something for banks to hold back on</span>. No, the <strong>RBA lowered rates by the full 0.75% for the benefit of consumers</strong></li>
<li>Throughout this global liquidity crisis, Australian banks have managed to maintain <strong>near record profits</strong>. There is massive political, social and moral pressure to &#8220;ease the squeeze on working families&#8221;</li>
<li>Globally speaking, our banks have great strength and are positioned to grow. Lots of <strong>opportunity exists right now for strong healthy banks to gobble up some that may be a little &#8220;punch-drunk&#8221; right now</strong>. As an example, the Commonwealth Bank has just acquired Bank West from the Bank of Scotland in a &#8220;fire sale&#8221;. That just shows how a set of circumstances can means DISASTER for one&#8230; but OPPORTUNITY for another <em>(PS: I have chosen my side)</em>.</li>
</ol>
<p>In my opinion, there are so many, many reasons for property owners, investors (&amp; would be investors) to remain optimistic about the opportunities going forward.</p>
<p>While we will experience a significant slowdown and rising unemployment; I don&#8217;t believe Australia will enter into a recession. In part because of the underlying health of our economy&#8230; but also because Kevin Rudd has way too much ego to even contemplate allowing history to label him as economically questionable. <strong>He knows only too well that the legacy of Paul Keating contains a lot of positive and progressive policies&#8230; that are simply lost on the memory that he delivered the &#8220;Recession we had to have&#8221;</strong>. At election time, Governments can be undone by those simple (yet often unfair) one liners.</p>
<p>The current global challenges are not of Kevin Rudd&#8217;s making. Yet he has been charged in no uncertain term to keep Australia out of recession. Maybe you and I have not charged him with this responsibility&#8230; but I believe he has charged himself and will therefore do whatever he has to to keep us growing.</p>
<p>If he can stand before the Australian public in 2010 as a leader who steered Australia through her most challenging time in recent memory&#8230; and if we as a nation avoided a recession, he is almost assured of another term.</p>
<p><strong>CARBON TRADING:</strong></p>
<p>The Opposition, Business groups and many others argue the merits of delaying the introduction of a Cap and Trade Carbon Trading (Emissions Reduction) Scheme&#8230; for a year until 2011. It is a HUGE effort for the government to meet this election promise and many would agree that a delay would be in our national interest given:</p>
<ul>
<li>Financial Crisis</li>
<li>Growth slowing</li>
<li>Unemployment rising</li>
<li>Financial pressure on families and businesses</li>
</ul>
<p>The Opposition are probably already scripting their &#8220;We told you so speeches&#8221; for when the &#8220;perceived inevitable&#8221; happens&#8230; i.e. the Rudd Government announces a back down. <strong>However, my personal opinion is that Rudd won&#8217;t have a bar of it. He will push his Ministers &amp; staff and commit to doing whatever it takes to go into the next election with his head held high.</strong> He&#8217;ll want to say to the Australian public:</p>
<p>&#8220;They said it couldn&#8217;t be done <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>before</strong></span> the full impact of the global credit crisis was understood&#8230; well we did it <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">DESPITE</span></strong> the global credit crisis!</p>
<p>Again, this may be as much about ego as it is about going to the next election having fulfilled what was promised before the last&#8230; DESPITE all the hurdles that have since appeared. That&#8217;s OK, however, because those of you who were growing up in the 1970&#8217;s (such as Kevin Rudd) will remember the Skyhook song &#8220;Ego, It&#8217;s Not A Dirty Word&#8221;.</p>
<p>I reiterate again that I am not an economist and the future is one of those things better understood from a position of hindsight. So with regards to:</p>
<ul>
<li>The banks passing on the rest of this week&#8217;s rate cut&#8230; ask me in a month</li>
<li>Official interest rates falling to 4% by April 2009&#8230; ask me in 6 months</li>
<li>Rudd getting (at least in part) his emissions trading scheme up and running by 2010&#8230; ask me in 2011</li>
</ul>
<p>Happy Investing,</p>
<p>Nick Lockhart</p>
<p>PS: If you Google &#8220;<strong><em><a href="http://www.google.com.au/search?q=reserve+bank+australia+interest+rate+cut+0.75%25&amp;ie=utf-8&amp;oe=utf-8&amp;aq=t&amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;client=firefox-a" target="_blank">reserve bank australia interest rate cut 0.75%</a></em></strong>&#8221; the front page will bring up 10 results. 9 tell the history of the 0.75% rate cut and 1 predicts it (<strong>mrd</strong> in position <img src='http://investmentmentor.com.au/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_cool.gif' alt='8)' class='wp-smiley' /> @ today, anyway.</p>
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		<title>Will the Reserve Bank Cut Interest Rates by 0.75% (or more) TODAY?</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/will-the-reserve-bank-cut-interest-rates-by-075-or-more-today/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/will-the-reserve-bank-cut-interest-rates-by-075-or-more-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:49:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=666</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Last month there was talk that the RBA would drop official interest rates by 50 basis points or 0.5%. I believed there was justification for them dropping rates by a full 100 basis points; or 1%. I kept my opinion to myself and as history has shown, they did&#8230;

The majority of the talk from economists, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://investmentmentor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/horse-race.jpg" rel="lightbox[666]"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-669" title="horse-race" src="http://investmentmentor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/horse-race.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>Last month there was talk that the RBA would drop official interest rates by 50 basis points or 0.5%. I believed there was justification for them dropping rates by a full 100 basis points; or 1%. I kept my opinion to myself and as history has shown, they did&#8230;</p>
<p><span id="more-666"></span></p>
<p>The majority of the talk from economists, journalists and commentators is that this afternoon the RBA will reduce rates by another 0.5% (50 basis points). A few economists disagree and say that with inflation still high and the impact of the Australian Government&#8217;s stimulus package yet to kick in (in about a month they unleash $10.4b on the economy) there will be no rate cut&#8230; or perhaps just 0.25% (25 basis points).</p>
<blockquote><p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong>I disagree. Personally I believe there is justification for a rate cut of at least 0.75% and perhaps another full 1%.</strong> </span></p></blockquote>
<p>Yes we have higher inflation, but the job of the RBA is to keep it between 2% and 3% over the cycle and right now the need to avoid recession is paramount. With the exception of Qld &amp; WA (the resource rich states) the rest of Australia &#8211; especially NSW &#8211; is doing it very tough. Our biggest threat is that unemployment will rise out of control, further fuelling a drop in both business and consumer confidence; already pushed lower than has been economically justified, by irresponsible negative journalism and those &#8216;painful pessimists&#8217; being given way too much air play.</p>
<p>I can no more pick what the RBA will do than I can a Melbourne Cup winner&#8230; but I can offer Nick&#8217;s opinion that the announcement of just a 0.5% rate cut this afternoon will only be &#8220;tinkering at the edges&#8221;. Personally I half expect the Reserve to go further. Regardless, today&#8217;s announcement means a happy day for Katrina and me. Who needs to pick a winner on the horses; we are guaranteed a BIG win?</p>
<p>Christmas is just around the corner, presenting the RBA with a natural stimulus OPPORTUNITY before we hit December and many businesses start to wind down. As mentioned the government&#8217;s $10.4b stimulus package will kick in in a month and yes that will help. Leaving a rate cut above 0.5% until December (or worse; early 2009) will miss a window of opportunity to give the Australian economy a serious inoculation against very low business and consumer confidence.</p>
<p>I think Melbourne Cup Day 2008 could see a lot of Australian&#8217;s and Australian business owners celebrating a great win when the RBA makes it&#8217;s announcement this afternoon. If so, don&#8217;t be overly surprised. Globally speaking our interest rates are still high and the RBA is mindful of the many businesses contemplating letting staff go prior to Christmas. <strong>I believe that some better than expected news is just what is needed.</strong></p>
<p>The government&#8217;s stimulus package will go a long way towards getting consumers spending. This will create jobs and lift business profits. <strong>My justification for suggesting the RBA could go even further than economists expect is more about confidence and employment than it is about spending, however.</strong></p>
<p>Do you read my articles in our Friday newsletters? I hope you do&#8230; in which case you would already know that I have my considered views on many subjects economical. <strong>I am not on the RBA board and have no say in what they do to interest rates. So regardless of how far they may move this afternoon, I believe there remains an argument for a cut of at least 0.75%; with more to follow in the months ahead!</strong></p>
<p>CELEBRATE because whether or not you bet on horse races&#8230; every mortgage holder will this afternoon celebrate some sort of a financial windfall!</p>
<p>Happy Investing,</p>
<p>Nick Lockhart</p>
<blockquote><p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong>PS: Have you been &#8220;freaked out&#8221; lately thinking house prices in Australia are about to crash by up to 40%? <span style="text-decoration: underline;">IMPORTANT!!!</span> Before you act on fear, emotion, the counsel from media and/or those pessimists (who are W.R.O.N.G. by the way), why not get the facts? You can register for FREE to participate in one of two web seminars I am hosting &#8211; tomorrow evening and next Wednesday evening. I will clearly articulate FACTS and you will go away encouraged!!!</strong></span></p>
<p><a title="Webinar Signup" href="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/webinar-signup.php" target="_blank">Click here to register for our FREE web seminar now</a></p></blockquote>
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		<title>Nick&#8217;s Superannuation This Past Year</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/nicks-superannuation-this-past-year/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/nicks-superannuation-this-past-year/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:10:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/?p=261</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[



Hi Nick, what is your opinion of superannuation and do you make contributions into super as well as continue to build a property portfolio?



The first thing I must say here is that I can only tell you what I do and my opinions why. I cannot offer (and am not offering) advice on what any [...]]]></description>
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<td width="35" valign="top" scope="row"><img src="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/newsletters/dropcap-question.png" alt="Question" width="35" height="44" align="left" /></td>
<td>Hi Nick, what is your opinion of superannuation and do you make contributions into super as well as continue to build a property portfolio?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" scope="row"><img src="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/newsletters/dropcap-answer.png" alt="Answer" width="35" height="44" align="left" /></td>
<td>The first thing I must say here is that I can only tell you what I do and my opinions why. I cannot offer (and am not offering) advice on what any individual should do in their own situation. Suffice to say that I am not a believer in Superannuation and I do not make personal contributions. My reasons include, but are not limited to:</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><span id="more-261"></span></p>
<ul>
<li>Superannuation contributions are heavily regulated and I have no idea how any future Australian Government may legislate to control what I have accumulated. The day could come when I am heavily taxed on any withdrawals over and above a type of nominal allocated pension.</li>
<li>A future government may decide &#8220;in the nation’s interest&#8221; to means test individuals and dictate the terms of retirement (i.e. how much they need to live on, etc).</li>
<li>I don&#8217;t like the idea of other people managing my investments; especially funds managers who are paid huge salaries even when &#8220;my fund&#8221; losses money.</li>
</ul>
<p>For those who think I am silly and should have a <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">more balanced investment portfolio</span></strong>, I pose the following&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;By a <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">more balanced investment portfolio</span></strong> do you mean that I ought to have a mix of:</p>
<ol>
<li>Investments that perform well (such as my property) AND</li>
<li>Investments that perform poorly (such as my Superannuation)</li>
</ol>
<p>That may sound cheeky, but I have copied my latest Westpac Superannuation Statement (employer contributions from the early 1990&#8217;s) for you to view below. <strong>Please note that over the past 12 months the balance of my Superannuation went backwards by almost 10.5%!</strong> My financial controller commented that I was &#8216;lucky&#8217; as many had gone backwards by up to 25%. &#8220;Yes, but the past 12 months were particularly bad&#8221; you may say. My answer to that is that I don&#8217;t want any bad years. My properties have continued to serve my lifestyle and retirement goals really well and there is no overriding legislation that will restrict me into the future; but these are just my opinions.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.investmentmentor.com.au/newsletters/Westpac-Super.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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		<title>Queensland &#8220;Powering ahead&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/queensland-powering-ahead/</link>
		<comments>http://investmentmentor.com.au/in-the-news/queensland-powering-ahead/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Feb 2007 04:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Lockhart @ mrd</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[In The News @ mrd]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://investmentmentor.com.au/2007/02/09/queensland-powering-ahead/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Queensland state accounts show continued baseline strength with a revised economic growth increasing to 4.4% for 2005/06. In comparison, national rate of growth is sitting at 1.4%. Deputy Premier and Treasurer Anna Bligh says faster growth in the business sector, housing investment and consumer spending have all contributed to Queensland’s stronger economic growth. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The latest Queensland state accounts show continued baseline strength with a revised economic growth increasing to 4.4% for 2005/06. In comparison, national rate of growth is sitting at 1.4%. Deputy Premier and Treasurer Anna Bligh says faster growth in the business sector, housing investment and consumer spending have all contributed to Queensland’s stronger economic growth. <strong>&#8220;Business investment in Queensland surged by 20.5% over the year to September 2006,&#8221;</strong> she says. &#8220;That compares with business investment growth of 0.4% in the rest of the country. <strong>That means that Queensland’s rate of business investment is 50 times that of the rest of Australia.&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>Over the year to December 2006 trend employment increased by a total of 97,100 people with 92,100 of those being full-time jobs. &#8220;Despite containing less than 20% of the nation’s population, Queensland accounted for more than one-third of national employment growth in 2006 and over 43% of full-time jobs growth,&#8221; Bligh told Parliament this week.</p>
<p>Queensland’s trend unemployment rate reached a generational low of 4.1% in December 2006, substantially lower than the 4.7% recorded in the rest of Australia.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Source: QBR</em></p>
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