About two years after each census is completed, the Australian Bureau of Statistics produces a set of population projections for all states, territories and capital cities. This document provides one input to demand modelling by federal and state government departments. Some states also produce population projections but they generally follow the lead set by the ABS.
The previous forecast, issued in June 2004 and based on the 2001 census, shows the Australian population rising from 20.6 million in 2006 to 28.2 million in 2051. This medium-growth outlook assumed falling fertility and net annual migration of 110,000. Both these assumptions more or less reflected the prevailing paradigm in fertility and migration trends from the late 1990s.
Under this outlook, Australia would add 7.6 million residents over 45 years: 1.5 million being added to Brisbane, 1.4 million to Melbourne and 1.3 million to Sydney. Outside the capital cities, Queensland was to add 1.4 million residents (mostly on the Gold Coast).
Within four years the ABS has changed its medium-growth assumption from 110,000 migrants a year to 180,000 migrants a year. Pushing the annual net migration assumption a further 70,000 over 45 years delivers an extra 3.2 million residents. The bottom line is that there has been a paradigm shift in the way demographers view Australia’s future and the key difference is immigration
Either Australians must “dense it up” to European proportions, or our cities must expand into greenfields locations and most likely within master-planned communities.
The outlook in the resource states is just as exciting. Over the 45 years to 2051, Brisbane will add 400,000 more residents than had been previously planned.
The new projections also bring demographic cheer to the regions. Non-metropolitan Queensland (dominated by the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast) will accommodate not 1.4 million extra residents over the 45 years to 2051, but 2.3 million. In just four years the outlook for regional Queensland has delivered a requirement to accommodate 900,000 extra residents. The two “coasts” will accommodate a large chunk of this, but what does this mean for the supply of and demand for land and water in cities such as Townsville, Mackay, Cairns and Toowoomba?
Bernard Salt, demographer | September 11, 2008
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