To make sense of the property market we must separate opinion from fact. Opinions will always be heard… just in greater numbers now perhaps. If you are prepared to “drill deeper” and dissect the evidence available; the facts will speak for themselves. There’s no reason for allowing the conflicting voices of opinion to keep you confused!

In the current round of Web Seminars we are offering, I highlight four key factors that are a MUST… if you expect to draw any credible conclusions.

1.    Record Population Growth
2.    Investors Have Fled The Market
3.    Home Ownership Unattractive
4.    New Construction Has Stalled Badly

1. RECORD POPULATION GROWTH

Australia is currently experiencing the fastest population growth in 200 years. Our population is predicted to grow by 350,000 this year for the first time in over 200 years. That represents approximately the combined total population of Geelong, Cairns & Bunbury; or the whole of Canberra.

The 1850’s Gold Rush years, Post World War 1 (1919 onwards) and post World War 2 (1946 onwards) saw our 3 previous population explosions. Today we see a similar pattern emerging; i.e. rapid and prolonged growth, too few workers and pro-immigration government policies.

Record population growth means a significantly stronger demand for new housing! Given our record numbers of new migrants will generally rent for a season, demand for rental properties will continue to strengthen.

2. INVESTORS HAVE FLED THE MARKET

Rising interest rates in recent years have squeezed rental yields making property look unaffordable. Add to the mix a booming stock market (averaged over 20% per year between 2004 and 2007) and one can see why property has not been the preferred investment vehicle of recent years.

Since becoming familiar with the term “subprime”, seeing the global credit crisis unfold… and hearing of property values in the US & UK falling by 30 & 40%, many would-be-investors have opted to stay on “strike”. It’s fair to say that since the highs of mid 2004 only the ‘brave’ have continued to invest in property.

Investor demand accounts for about 50% of all new housing starts and about 70% of unit starts. Therefore, that investors have fled the market means significant negative impact on the supply of new housing and increased demand on existing rental accommodation.

3. HOME OWNERSHIP HAS BEEN UNATTRACTIVE

As with investors. the housing affordability barrier, rising interest rates (& general living costs) and of course the US initiated subprime crisis has left many would-be home owners lacking the confidence to purchase.

Scared, priced out of the market, unable to secure funding or unable to service a loan? regardless of the reason why new home ownership has been unattractive; the result has been that many renters in recent years have simply continued to rent. This has placed further pressure on existing rental housing stock

4. NEW CONSTRUCTION HAS STALLED BADLY

Since 2005 the absolute number of completed residential properties has fallen and they are forecast to continue falling in 2009. The US subprime crisis cemented this downward trend in demand for new properties. Add to that, in recent years we have seen the high profile bankruptcy of some large developers along with massive financial pressure on many smaller developers. The cost of finance has skyrocketed for developers… i.e. if they can find a lender who will back them. Understandably, developers are very nervous… many have simply shelved their new projects until such time as they see clear evidence that investors have returned to the market.

Developers going broke, developers shelving projects and/or developers unable to secure funding means new construction has stalled badly and as a result greatly reduced the supply of new property further adding to pressures on existing housing stocks.

DISSECTING THE EVIDENCE

• FACT: We are experiencing the greatest housing shortage in 200 years
• FACT: Because of the new Federal Government’s immigration policy, we are experiencing the strongest population growth in 200 years
• FACT: Since about mid 2004, broadly speaking investors have fled the market
• FACT: Since about mid 2004, broadly speaking home ownership has remained unattractive and renters have continued renting
• FACT: Since about mid 2004 the construction of new dwellings has stalled badly
• FACT: In mid 2004, national rental vacancy levels were about 3.5%. This level is considered a balanced market. Rental vacancy levels have dropped to below 1.5% now and are expected to continue to drop to historical lows of between 0.5% and 1% in 2009. These levels represent a stressed market
• FACT: When the demand for rental housing grows at a faster pace than supply, increased demand can be offset by diminishing vacancy levels
• FACT: When vacancy levels reach just 1% it is said that we have NO VACANCY, as the 1% represents the few days between tenants moving and carpets being cleaned etc… prior to a new tenant moving in
• FACT: Therefore, once vacancy levels fall to 1%… there is no room left to offset increasing demand by diminishing vacancy levels
• FACT: When demand increases and supply decreases and vacancy levels are already stressed; i.e. no vacancy… market forces mean rents have to go up… and significantly where population growth is significant
• FACT: Interest rates are the lowest they have been in years and are expected to reach (near) record lows by mid 2009

Now you have the FACTS, rather than simply “opinions”; may I suggest you draw your own conclusions as to what might happen with Australian property in mid to late 2009?

• With the cost of renting about to soar and the cost of ownership dropping significantly (i.e. rental incomes up and interest charges down), what do you expect the market will do?
• With stock market volatility and uncertainty and interest earned on cash deposited dropping away, what do you expect the market will do?
• With serious increases to the first home owners grant, what do you expect this group to do?
• Given rental properties vacated by first home owners will not produce a glut… because vacancy levels are at an all time low (stressed market) and the population is growing by the size of Canberra each year, what do you think the market will do?

Can I go out on a limb and tell you what I think; I may be wrong, but I don’t think I am?

1. I expect rents to soar in 2009
2. I expect interest rates to continue to drop next month and in 2009
3. I expect confidence to come back to the market, drawing back owners and renters alike
4. Given there is a lag of a few years from when developers decide to build again and new stock being ready to live in… I see no relief for the poor tenant for at least a few years
5. I also believe that the combination of all that I have just outlined will result in the next property price surge

So, in summary…

Those who have been building a property portfolio as their preferred vehicle for funding their retirements (NB: assuming they bought the right residential property in the right areas) are soon going to experience the property investors trifecta:

1. Rising incomes (rents)
2. Falling costs (interest)
3. Increasing equity (values)

I would love to address the subject “We are not the USA” and compare the FACTS relating to how we are different and why what happened there will not happen here; but I will save that for another day.

May I invite you to register your interest for either our next FREE Web Seminar this Wednesday evening… or if you let us know what other time(s) best work for you, we will run them according to demand CLICK HERE.

Happy Investing,

Nick Lockhart
mrd customer care program… because investing is personal